Fidget Vacation Journal: Eruption!

Occam's razor provides that, given two explanations for some phenomenon, the simpler of the two explanations is probably the correct one. Although knowing about Occam's razor may be helpful for a stint on Jeopardy, the rule has its limits. That is, it is helpful only if one can tell which of two explanations is the simpler one. Example:

We see fire and smoke rising from near the top of the 10,000-foot volcano, Mt. Haleakala. We immediately see two possible explanations: (1) a forest fire, or (2) a volcanic eruption. Well, there's not a whole lot of trees on Haleakala, a fact that tends to point to the second explanation. But Haleakala is supposed to be dormant, a fact that tends to point to the first explanation. Hmm.

In this case, it matters not which of the two explanations is correct. If it's a forest fire, we are likely safe; as I said, there are not many trees up there, and so a forest fire should quickly burn out. And if it's an eruption, we should also be safe; flowing lava tends to move at a snail's pace. And if some other, less simple explanation is to blame for the "disturbance" on Mt. Haleakala, I shant be around long to find out. That's right, readers, Fidget returns tomorrow.

[photo by fidget]